Research: No Covid hospitalization uptick

30th Jun 2020, 5:54 AM
Research: No Covid hospitalization uptick
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30th Jun 2020, 5:54 AM
(-)_(.) kadaka!
On June 26 there was this tweet purporting to show a possible uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations after the George Floyd protests, using the graph seen there (which doesn't like to show up here).

Replication remains the hallmark of good science so I went searching. And learned a lot, mostly about spreadsheet charting with LibreOffice. Lots of drawing. For its price, free, it's well worth knowing how to use it. And it beats the pants off of Lotus 1-2-3.

Google puts out their COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to let you know how much people are moving around. Don't know about the "Covid Hospital Census" but hospitalization numbers from the CDC are available here. Go Display by->Weekly Rate, not cumulative, select age range Overall, download.

For added fun, the CDC goes by numbered MMWR weeks, Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report, they run Sun to Sat. The X-axis on the graph shows the end dates for the weeks.

The result? Two graphs that look practically the same except for one big difference. No Uptick. Despite the protests, the hospitalization rates according to latest CDC numbers keep going down as they have since the United States started reopening.

So even though there are localized hot spots flaring up, overall we're doing pretty good while opening up again, so far. Good News!
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Comments:

30th Jun 2020, 7:09 AM
area5.1
Your graph certainly suggests that the protests made little or no impact. I'd surmise it's because the protestors are likely to be from a group with a lower risk of being ill if they caught it, or it maybe just doesn't spread that way.
30th Jun 2020, 4:13 PM
(-)_(.) kadaka!
With reports from antibody testing that ten times the reported number could already have been infected, and COVID-19 being in Europe in mid-December thus likely it came to America sooner than thought, apparently this virus is a lot more contagious yet a lot less dangerous than we were told. Many urban protestors could have already had it.
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